THE MAC IS BACK · UFC 329 — McGregor vs Holloway 2 at the T-Mobile Arena · 14 fights · Basharat LOCK

Predict
every
fight.

A four-model consensus — V14 + V15 + Paperclip + market odds, stacked via logistic regression — trained on 8,500+ fights. 82.67% live on flagged picks (62-13 across 21 cards in 2026); 84.9% on high-confidence holdout (n=52); 75.6% across 2026 cards (n=90). Every number n-cited. No guesswork.

FightIQ is a data-analytics tool that publishes prediction probabilities and a verifiable track record. It is not betting advice and we do not facilitate gambling. Read the model, treat the numbers as one input into your own judgement.

Presented by mouthguards.pro Custom Combat Mouthguards

The latest reads

Original UFC writing — main-event breakdowns, model-vs-market reads, recaps, autopsies. Updated daily. Browse all 95 →

Read all 95 articles in the Newsroom

The numbers speak for themselves

2025-26 holdout · real-market ROI basis (BFO closing). Every claim n-cited, strata stated. See full methodology →

82.67%
Live Flagged (LOCK+HIGH)
62-13 across 21 cards (n=75) · 2026 live trial · not a backtest
84.9%
Holdout High-Confidence
L+H subset · n=52 · 2025-26 holdout (different strata from live)
75.6%
2026 Card Accuracy
winner picks · n=90 · frozen-2026-01-01 model
71.59%
Consensus Pick Accuracy
4-model ensemble · n=428 · 2025-26 holdout
+8.09%
Consensus Pick ROI
n=428 · real-market closing odds · 1u flat
76.21%
UNANIMOUS Picks Hit
all 3 models agree · n=311
70.66%
Stacking Ensemble
production stack · n=1,060 · 2023-26 holdout

Past performance does not guarantee future results. All accuracy + ROI numbers are 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing). TOSS-UP picks excluded. +8.09% consensus ROI on n=428, +15.99% bankroll growth / +7.40% turnover ROI on flagged picks (n=216, 1u flat sizing).

Built different

Most prediction sites give you gut feelings dressed up as analysis. We give you a machine that learns from every fight ever thrown.

01

Every Fight. Ever.

8,500+ UFC fights spanning 12+ years. Striking, grappling, physical attributes, Elo ratings, historical odds — all cleaned and structured.

02

Engineered Intelligence

We don't just look at records. Proprietary features capture style matchups, momentum, aging curves, and how fighters perform under pressure.

03

Multi-Model Ensemble

Four algorithms compete and collaborate. A dual architecture blends market-aware and market-blind predictions to avoid overfitting.

04

Find the Edge

We scan betting markets in real time. When our model disagrees with the market, we flag it. That's where the money is.

Four models. One prediction.

Each algorithm sees the fight differently. When they agree, we're confident. When they don't, we tell you.

Model A

Statistical foundation — finds the signal in the noise

Model B

Pattern recognition — learns complex matchup dynamics

Model C

Speed optimised — processes every angle at scale

Model D

Robustness engine — guards against overfitting

This Saturday's predictions

UFC Freedom 250 tonight · Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje at the White House · Pereira vs Gane co-main · 7 fights · PPV.

UFC Freedom 250 · Topuria vs Gaethje · Tonight
7 June 2026 · UFC Apex, Las Vegas · main card 10 PM ET / 3 AM BST
LIVE
Full 12-fight card with consensus picks, tier ratings, market lines, and per-fight blurbs — auto-rendering from the live data feed.
View card →

Not all picks are equal

Every prediction comes with a confidence tier. The edge lives in LOCK and HIGH — that's where you should focus.

LOCK
14-2
2026 · 87.5% · n=16 · canonical (season_record_2026.json) · methodology
HIGH
79.4%
2026 · 27-7
MED
67%
solid · worth tracking
LOW / TOSS-UP
~55%
coin flip · proceed with caution

Every card. Every prediction. Every result.

Full pre-fight analysis, FightIQ model predictions, and post-fight results for every UFC event in 2026.

Fantasy Matchmaker · Pick Any 2 Fighters Khabib in his prime vs Oliveira in his · 2,650 fighters · live model
NEW
Bot Claude · UFC 328 Dry-Run + Backtest Evidence Live audit feed · 88/93 V13+V14 backtest (V14 n=7) · $0 capital
DRY-RUN
UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 · T-Mobile Arena Jul 11 · 14 fights · PPV · Basharat LOCK F12 · Saint-Denis vs Pimblett co-main
TONIGHT
UFC FN: Fiziev vs Torres · Baku Jun 27 · 13 fights · settled 11/13 (85%)
85%
UFC FN: Kape vs Horiguchi · APEX Vegas Jun 21 · 12 fights · APEX · settled 9/12 (75%)
75%
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje · White House Jun 15 · 7 fights · PPV · settled 6/7 (86%)
86%
UFC FN: Muhammad vs Bonfim Jun 7 · 12 fights · settled 9/12 (75%)
75%
UFC FN Macau: Song vs Figueiredo May 30 · 13 fights · settled
settled
UFC FN May 16: Allen vs Costa May 16 · 10 fights · settled
settled
UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland May 9 · 12 fights · settled 9/12 (75%)
75%
UFC Perth: Prates upsets Della Maddalena May 2 · 12 fights · FightIQ 8/12 (66.7%) · results + autopsy
67%
UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs Zalal Apr 25 · UFC Apex · 12 fights · FightIQ 5/12 picks
42%
UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs Malott Apr 18 · Winnipeg · 11 fights · 1 cancelled
55%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett Jan 24 · Las Vegas · 11 fights
73%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 Feb 1 · Sydney · 13 fights
77%
FN 266: Bautista vs Oliveira Feb 7 · Las Vegas · 13 fights
77%
FN 267: Strickland vs Hernandez Feb 21 · Houston · 14 fights
71%
FN 268: Moreno vs Kavanagh Feb 28 · Mexico City · 13 fights
85%
UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 Mar 7 · Las Vegas · 12 fights
58%
FN 269: Emmett vs Vallejos Mar 14 · Las Vegas · 14 fights
86%
FN 270: Evloev vs Murphy Mar 21 · London · 13 fights
85%
FN 271: Adesanya vs Pyfer Mar 28 · Seattle · 12 fights
58%
FN 272: Moicano vs Duncan Apr 4 · Las Vegas · 13 fights
46%
UFC 327: Procházka vs Ulberg Apr 11 · Miami · 12 fights
64%

Get predictions before fight night

Join the waitlist and be the first to receive model output, edge alerts, and confidence-rated picks for every UFC event.