FightIQ

UFC · Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Tonight
UFC · 22 August 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento

Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Middleweight Main Event · 5 Rounds · 13 Fights · Sacramento
13
Fights
6
Main Card
7
Prelims
2
LOCK Picks
◆ METHODOLOGY · LOCK MECHANICAL-AGREEMENT CAVEAT

Picks reflect the 4-voice consensus ensemble (V14 + V15.1 + Paperclip + market). Each fight shows pick + confidence tier. LOCK tier fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites); performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 LOCK ledger: 14-2 (n=16, 87.5%) — the flagged tier's canonical season record (source: season_record_2026.json). TOSS-UP picks excluded from accuracy claims. 71.59% consensus accuracy on n=428 / 76.21% UNANIMOUS_3 (n=307), 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing).

◆ Main Card

Main Card

Main Event Middleweight · 3 rds
Anthony Hernandez
VS
Gregory Rodrigues
Pick Anthony Hernandez HIGH
Anthony Hernandez -182 · Gregory Rodrigues +182
HIGHAnthony Hernandez — HIGH-conviction pick at Middleweight.
Co-Main Heavyweight · 3 rds
Serghei Spivac
VS
Vitor Petrino
Pick Vitor Petrino LOW
Serghei Spivac +141 · Vitor Petrino -141
LOWVitor Petrino — low-conviction lean at Heavyweight.
Main Card Light Heavyweight · 3 rds
Reinier de Ridder
VS
Roman Dolidze
Pick Reinier de Ridder LOCK
Reinier de Ridder -344 · Roman Dolidze +344
LOCKReinier de Ridder — LOCK pick at Light Heavyweight.
Main Card Lightweight · 3 rds
Marquel Mederos
VS
Mason Jones
Pick Mason Jones MED
Marquel Mederos +308 · Mason Jones -308
MEDMason Jones — medium-conviction pick at Lightweight.
Main Card Women's Flyweight · 3 rds
Carli Judice
VS
Jeisla Chaves
Pick Carli Judice HIGH
Carli Judice -506 · Jeisla Chaves +506
HIGHCarli Judice — HIGH-conviction pick at Women's Flyweight.
Main Card Heavyweight · 3 rds
Anthony Wint
VS
Terrance Chatman
Pick No model read
◆ Prelims

Prelims

Prelim Featherweight · 3 rds
Jamall Emmers
VS
Lerryan Douglas
Pick Lerryan Douglas HIGH
Jamall Emmers +326 · Lerryan Douglas -326
HIGHLerryan Douglas — HIGH-conviction pick at Featherweight.
Prelim Heavyweight · 5 rds
Kennedy Nzechukwu
VS
Shamil Gaziev
Pick Kennedy Nzechukwu TOSS-UP
Kennedy Nzechukwu +125 · Shamil Gaziev -125
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim · 3 rds
Chris Padilla
VS
Nasrat Haqparast
Pick Chris Padilla TOSS-UP
Chris Padilla +102 · Nasrat Haqparast -102
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim Featherweight · 3 rds
Marcio Barbosa
VS
Ryan Kuse
Pick Marcio Barbosa HIGH
Marcio Barbosa -590 · Ryan Kuse +590
HIGHMarcio Barbosa — HIGH-conviction pick at Featherweight.
Prelim Lightweight · 3 rds
Gauge Young
VS
Stan Dorsainvil
Pick Gauge Young TOSS-UP
Gauge Young -153 · Stan Dorsainvil +153
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim Middleweight · 3 rds
Jackson McVey
VS
Wes Schultz
Pick Jackson McVey TOSS-UP
Jackson McVey -163 · Wes Schultz +163
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim Women's Strawweight · 3 rds
Elise Reed
VS
Shanelle Dyer
Pick Shanelle Dyer LOCK
Elise Reed +641 · Shanelle Dyer -641
LOCKShanelle Dyer — LOCK pick at Women's Strawweight.
◆ How we score these

Honest framing

Pick + tier only. No probability percentages on consumer per-fight display — the tier carries the meaning. On the validated 2025-26 cohort, LOCK picks hit 91.2% (73-7, n=80) and HIGH 76.2% (n=126). MED / LOW / TOSS-UP come from an older confidence scheme and are not part of that ladder.

ROI figures withdrawn. We pulled every ROI number in August 2026 after our own review found part of the backtest priced bets at vig-stripped "fair" odds rather than prices a book would actually take. Accuracy figures are unaffected — the defect was in the pricing layer, not the predictions. Full note →

4-voice consensus. V14 (deep-stack belief) + V15.1 (per-fight feature packs) + Paperclip (independent ensemble) + market (no-vig closing line) are stacked via a calibrated logistic regression. Disagreement is surfaced where it matters.

No bet-this CTAs. This is a prediction surface, not a tout. Picks are for analysis. Full methodology →