FightIQ originals — data-driven previews, recaps, features, and explainers we wrote in-house, linked to the same model that powers our predictions. Aggregated headlines — the rest of the MMA web with full source credit + link-outs.
The model flagged six of the 11 bouts it read in Philadelphia, and all four top-tier picks sit on the undercard.
Every model read for tonight's 12-fight card in Philadelphia, with the tiers and the gaps.
The Ultimate Fighter season 11 winner is closing a 16-year, 24-fight run on the UFC roster.
Our model had the right winner and the wrong method.
Makhachev and Machado Garry headline Saturday, and our model flagged neither championship bout.
Twelve fights at the APEX, five decisions, and a 35-second finish that ended Darren Elkins' 31-fight UFC run.
The model called every winner at UFC Vegas 120. That is one card of 12 fights, and the method column still went 5 of 12.
Alexia Thainara and Ty Miller are the only two fights our model flags on a 12-bout card at the APEX.
Twelve of 14 fights ended inside the distance in Serbia; our model took the winners and lost the methods.
What our model says about all 12 fights at the APEX before anyone throws a punch.
A UFC career that began in 2010 ends Saturday in Las Vegas, on a date he chose himself.
Only two fights on the Aug. 1 card in Serbia reached the scorecards.
The winner column held up on the Aug. 1 card. The method column did not, for the second card running.
Medic vs. Rodriguez tops 14 fights in Serbia, and two of our flagged picks come with caveats we would rather state than bury.
The week's reported news: a promotional merger, a Moscow headliner, a Shanghai addition and a callout.
Friday, July 31: one LOCK in Serbia, a merged PFL and MVP, and Chimaev's return in Moscow.
Ankalaev begins his climb back tonight in Abu Dhabi, the card lost a fight on the day, and UFC 331 is building. What's on, and where our numbers stand.
A confirmed Pitbull-Choi featherweight bout and a reported Moicano-Ortega rematch stack up on the Sept. 19 Los Angeles card, while the expected Tsarukyan-Oliveira headline stays unofficial.
A former champion begins his climb back against a short-notice contender, hours after the card lost a bout when a 12-1 prospect was hospitalized.
Eight of 12 fights ended inside the distance at Etihad Arena, and the main event was the only bout to get past the third round.
Both flagged picks landed and both misses came from the bottom of our confidence range. The method column was the weak spot.
Islam Makhachev, Frankie Edgar and Du Plessis's own coach have circled the same fight-week question about Kamaru Usman's move to middleweight: can his knees still carry his wrestling?
Holloway ended McGregor's comeback and our model called it; tonight it's Du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City. The autopsy, the build, and an honest hold on tonight's number.
UFC 329 autopsy: our model tagged Max Holloway a HIGH pick against a returning Conor McGregor, went 4-for-4 on every conviction call and got the method right too. The only losses were toss-ups.
The champion swept the scorecards at Paycom Center, keeping the middleweight belt over the full five rounds.
We hit the main event and seven others, missed four, and are holding back per-fight tiers pending a data re-certification.
McGregor's back Saturday after 1,827 days, the fight world is split on it, and the model won't fake a read. UFC 329 week, plus the bookings and where our numbers stand.
Aspinall says Round 1 knockout. Masvidal says Ferrari with a quarter tank. Belal, Mendes and Matt Brown all land somewhere in between. Here's every UFC 329 take, sorted.
Thirteen years after McGregor won their featherweight fight, the rematch lands at welterweight with a five-year layoff attached. The model favors Holloway, but this is exactly the fight it knows least about.
A quiet booking week put a middleweight main event on the calendar, handed Marlon Vera a way off a four-fight skid, and sent an ex-PFL champ to Abu Dhabi. Here is what each move is actually for.
UFC 329 is set for July 11 with start times and the full card out. Dan Hooker tips his cap, Georges St-Pierre talks "hell zone," and Justin Gaethje wants a seat. Here is the honest read, including why we will not hand yo…
GSP gives the welterweight champ the edge over Garry; one division down, Pimblett and Tsarukyan's camp pull the contender debate in opposite directions.
Alex Pereira shared a petition to ban Herb Dean, Tom Aspinall and Jorge Masvidal piled on, and Dana White punted to the commission. The foul claim is still an allegation, and the officiating debate it reopened is the rea…
Our model went 11-2 on winners in Baku, one of its better cards of the year. It still missed twice: the main event it graded a coin flip, and a high-confidence pick that got submitted in the first round.
Baku's done and the model graded its misses; McGregor-Holloway fight week is here; and a referee is still the story. The day's threads and where our numbers stand.
The No. 3 bantamweight called Song a "punching bag." On the same January card we modeled Song's O'Malley loss as a near coin flip.
The Predator says a Rico Verhoeven crossover is "what I have in mind for right now." The UFC superfight everyone wants is still a fan poll with no contract behind it.
The former middleweight champ opens around -340 over a welterweight legend moving up. The odds gap is the story; our model hasn't priced this one.
The UFC sold Freedom 250 as a viewership event. A week on, the figures depend on which figure you pick, and the one White says matters most is not out yet.
We finished grading every 2026 card with a prediction: 67.4% across 187 calls, hits and misses. Plus Baku week, the McGregor-Holloway build, and the White House fallout.