The lede
Baku is in the books, UFC 329 is days away, and the loudest story of the week is still a referee. The model had a strong night in Azerbaijan and we graded our own misses on it. Here is the morning.
Top storylines
- Fiziev's hometown knockout. Rafael Fiziev finished Manuel Torres with a Round 2 spinning kick in Baku and called for a BMF title shot. Our model leaned Torres, a 56 percent coin-flip, and lost it. Full autopsy on the desk.
- McGregor-Holloway is here. UFC 329 fight week is live, with start times and the full card out, per Bloody Elbow and MMA Junkie. Conor McGregor returns against Max Holloway after a five-year layoff.
- The Herb Dean saga. Alex Pereira shared a petition to ban referee Herb Dean; Dana White said it is up to the commission; Josh Hokit kept defending Dean, per MMA Junkie and Bloody Elbow. We cover the officiating debate, allegations as allegations.
- The UFC 330 picture. Georges St-Pierre gives Islam Makhachev the edge over Ian Machado Garry, while Paddy Pimblett questions whether Arman Tsarukyan has earned a title shot, per MMA Junkie and Bloody Elbow.
This week in the cage
UFC 329 - Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway. A welterweight bout headlining McGregor's first fight in five years. We are not putting a model number on a five-year-layoff fight at a new weight; that is a genuine unknown, and we will say so rather than fake a read.
From the FightIQ desk
Our UFC Baku model autopsy is up. The honest version: 11-2 on winners, a strong card, but two misses owned, not one. We lost the Torres coin-flip and we lost a high-confidence pick on Javier Reyes, who was submitted in a round. A good night is not a clean one.
The number
The live 2026 record sits at 68.8 percent on all picks, every fight including toss-ups, the floor. On flagged conviction picks, the LOCK and HIGH tier, it is at 82.67 percent, 62-13 across 75 such picks. We track the second number, and we never blend the two.