We finished grading ourselves. Every 2026 card we made a prediction on, January through May, now has a recap and an autopsy in the publish queue, and the honest headline is 126 of 187 calls correct, 67.4%, in line with our season number. That is the backdrop for a quiet fight-week: UFC Baku lands Saturday, the McGregor-Holloway build is heating up, and the post-White House noise hasn't settled. Here is what matters this morning, and where our numbers sit.\n\n### Top storylines\n\n- Bantamweight gets chippy. Umar Nurmagomedov said he is \"definitely interested\" in Song Yadong, calling him a \"punching bag,\" per MMA Junkie. A live contender matchup if it gets made.\n- Ngannou eyes a return. Francis Ngannou said he has one fight \"in mind for right now,\" with a Tom Aspinall meeting the long-game subtext, per Bloody Elbow. Treat the cross-promotional talk as aspirational until anything is signed.\n- Du Plessis vs Usman takes shape. Odds and a full breakdown for the UFC Oklahoma City middleweight title headliner are out, per MMA Junkie. Usman moving up to 185 for a second-division belt is the story.\n- The White House numbers. Dana White trumpeted the Freedom 250 ratings with global figures still to come, per MMA Fighting. We are treating the specific numbers as his claim until independently confirmed.\n\n### This week in the cage\n\nUFC Baku — Saturday, June 27. Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres headlines at home in Azerbaijan. Our model leans Torres at 59.4%, tagged LOW confidence, against a near-pick'em line. A lean, not a flag, on a fight where both men finish. Full preview on the desk.\n\n### From the FightIQ desk\n\nWe finished the back-catalog: a recap and model autopsy for every 2026 card with predictions, January through May, now in the publish queue. The honest headline from that exercise: across 15 cards the model graded 126 of 187, 67.4%, in line with our season number.\n\n### The number\n\nOur live 2026 record sits at 67.9% on all picks and 81.4% on the high-conviction (LOCK and HIGH) calls we actually stand behind, across 70 such picks. That second figure is the one we track, because it reflects the picks we flag for readers. We grade every card the same way, hits and misses, and the misses get their own autopsy.