UFC Belgrade runs Saturday at Belgrade Arena, and our model's single LOCK of the 14-fight card sits on a fighter who has lost his last three.
That pick is Mateusz Rebecki at 85% over Kyle Prepolec, most likely by decision. It is the only LOCK on the card, and LOCK is our top tier. We do not issue them often.
What the LOCK is built on
Rebecki is 4-4 in the UFC and has lost three in a row.
Chris Duncan beat him by unanimous decision Aug. 2, 2025. Ludovit Klein beat him by majority decision Oct. 25, 2025. Grant Dawson submitted him in the third round May 9, 2026.
Prepolec is 0-4 in the UFC and has never won in the promotion.
The 85% is therefore reading the matchup, and an opponent who is 0-4, more heavily than it is reading Rebecki's own recent form. A reader seeing only the LOCK label would not know that.
We are stating the basis, and we are not calling the pick right or wrong before the fight happens.
The other flagged picks
Two picks on the card carry our HIGH tier.
Navajo Stirling at 74% over Jan Blachowicz, most likely by decision. Israel Adesanya has publicly backed Stirling to beat Blachowicz.
Jovan Leka at 71% over Alexander Poppeck, most likely by KO/TKO.
Where our data runs out
Ten of the 28 fighters on this card have no prior UFC fight in our dataset. Belgrade is a heavily regional card with a long list of promotional newcomers.
Our model leans on fight history. For those bouts the read is anchored mostly to the betting odds rather than to fighter data.
One of the 10 is Jovan Leka, our own flagged HIGH pick at 71%. We have no UFC data for him. A flagged pick resting on no fight history deserves more scepticism than the tier label alone suggests.
How to read the tiers
Only LOCK and HIGH picks count as flagged conviction picks. Everything else on the card is simply not flagged, and we do not publish it as a tier.
Main event
Uros Medic meets Daniel Rodriguez at the top of the card. Our model picks Medic at 66%, most likely by KO/TKO. Medic is Serbian and fighting at home.
Elsewhere on the card
Aleksandar Rakic is picked at 72% over Marcin Tybura. Ludovit Klein is picked at 75% over Tofiq Musayev. Neither pick is flagged.
None of this is betting advice. Nothing on the card has happened yet, and we will publish the graded results once it has.