◆ METHODOLOGY · LOCK MECHANICAL-AGREEMENT CAVEAT
Picks reflect the 4-voice consensus ensemble (V14 + V15.1 + Paperclip + market). Each fight shows pick + confidence tier. LOCK tier fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites); performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 LOCK ledger: 14-2 (n=16, 87.5%) — the flagged tier's canonical season record (source: season_record_2026.json). TOSS-UP picks excluded from accuracy claims. 71.59% consensus accuracy on n=428 / 76.21% UNANIMOUS_3 (n=307), 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing).
Main Event
Middleweight · 5 rds
Pick
Dricus Du Plessis
MED
Dricus Du Plessis -270 / Kamaru Usman +250
MEDDricus Du Plessis — medium-conviction pick at Middleweight.
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Dricus Du Plessis
9-1 UFC, 10 fights
Dricus Du Plessis headlines in Oklahoma City with a 9-1 UFC record across 10 appearances. The South African is coming off the first loss of his UFC tenure, a unanimous decision against Khamzat Chimaev in August 2025. Before that, Du Plessis put together the run that defined his career: a unanimous decision over Sean Strickland in February 2025, a submission of Israel Adesanya in August 2024 and a split-decision win over Strickland in January 2024. Known for an unorthodox, high-output style that drags opponents into deep water, Du Plessis wins with pace and durability rather than polish. The Chimaev loss was his first setback in the promotion, and he returns to headline against a former welterweight champion moving up in weight. He faces Kamaru Usman in a middleweight main event in Oklahoma City.
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Kamaru Usman
16-3 UFC, 19 fights
Kamaru Usman carries a 16-3 UFC record built over 19 appearances into the main event. The former welterweight champion enters on a unanimous-decision win over Joaquin Buckley in June 2025 that snapped a three-fight losing run. Before it, Usman dropped a majority decision to Khamzat Chimaev in October 2023 and lost twice to Leon Edwards, by majority decision in March 2023 and by knockout in August 2022. A wrestling-based pressure fighter, Usman built his championship reign on takedowns, top control and a punishing jab. The Buckley result marked a return to the win column after that difficult stretch at 170 pounds. He meets Dricus Du Plessis at middleweight in Oklahoma City.
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Co-Main
Middleweight · 3 rds
Pick
Christian Leroy Duncan
LOW
Jared Cannonier -110 / Christian Leroy Duncan -110 [TBD]
LOWChristian Leroy Duncan — low-conviction lean at Middleweight.
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Jared Cannonier
11-9 UFC, 20 fights
Jared Cannonier carries an 11-9 UFC record into Oklahoma City, one of the longer-tenured names on the card at 20 appearances. The middleweight has lost three of his last four, most recently a unanimous decision to Michael Page in August 2025. His lone win in that stretch came by knockout over Gregory Rodrigues in February 2025. Cannonier also dropped a unanimous decision to Caio Borralho in August 2024 and was stopped by Nassourdine Imavov in June 2024. A former title challenger who has fought across three weight classes, Cannonier still carries knockout power in both hands and remains a hard night for any middleweight. He meets Christian Leroy Duncan on the main card.
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Christian Leroy Duncan
7-2 UFC, 9 fights
Christian Leroy Duncan meets Jared Cannonier on a 7-2 UFC record and the best form of his Octagon run. The middleweight has won four straight, capped by a unanimous decision over Roman Dolidze in March. He stopped Marco Tulio by knockout in November 2025 and Eryk Anders by knockout in August 2025, and beat Andrey Pulyaev by unanimous decision in March 2025. Duncan blends length and finishing power, and the Dolidze result stands as his most notable win to date. Across nine UFC appearances he has alternated between decision wins and knockouts. A step up against the veteran Cannonier gives Duncan the stiffest test of his streak in Oklahoma City.
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Main Card
Lightweight · 3 rds
Pick
Chase Hooper
LOW
Chase Hooper -110 / Mitch Ramirez -110 [TBD]
LOWChase Hooper — low-conviction lean at Lightweight.
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Chase Hooper
8-5 UFC, 13 fights
Chase Hooper faces Mitch Ramirez on an 8-5 UFC record built over 13 appearances since he arrived as one of the promotion's youngest signings. The lightweight has lost his last two, both by knockout, to Lance Gibson Jr. in March and Alexander Hernandez in August 2025. Those setbacks followed the strongest stretch of his career: a unanimous decision over Jim Miller in April 2025 and a submission of Clay Guida in December 2024. A jiu-jitsu specialist who hunts scrambles and submissions, Hooper does his best work once the fight hits the mat. The back-to-back stoppage losses put a premium on his next result. He meets Ramirez, who is still chasing a first UFC win, in Oklahoma City.
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Mitch Ramirez
0-2 UFC, 2 fights
Mitch Ramirez is still chasing his first UFC win when he meets Chase Hooper in Oklahoma City. The lightweight is 0-2 in the Octagon, both losses by knockout: to Mike Davis in July 2025 and Thiago Moises in March 2024. A finish against Hooper would reset a difficult start to his promotional run. Ramirez has shown a willingness to trade and press forward, and the long gap between his two appearances underlines how much a first UFC victory would mean. He draws a grappling-heavy opponent in Hooper, a matchup that asks him to keep the fight standing and land clean. A third straight loss would leave him in a precarious roster spot.
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Main Card
Women's Strawweight · 3 rds
Pick
Fatima Kline
LOW
Tabatha Ricci -110 / Fatima Kline -110 [TBD]
LOWFatima Kline — low-conviction lean at Women's Strawweight.
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Tabatha Ricci
7-4 UFC, 11 fights
Tabatha Ricci meets Fatima Kline on a 7-4 UFC record across 11 appearances. The Brazilian strawweight is coming off a unanimous-decision loss to Virna Jandiroba in April, a result that stalled the momentum from her July 2025 knockout of Amanda Ribas. Ricci's recent form has run hot and cold: the Ribas win followed a unanimous-decision loss to Yan Xiaonan in November 2024, and before that she beat Angela Hill by unanimous decision in August 2024. A judoka and grappler by background, Ricci pairs takedowns with a steady boxing base and rarely gets finished. The matchup with the surging Kline tests whether her experience can slow a younger opponent. She fights on the Oklahoma City card.
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Fatima Kline
3-1 UFC, 4 fights
Fatima Kline brings a 3-1 UFC record and a three-fight winning streak into her bout with Tabatha Ricci. The strawweight beat Angela Hill by unanimous decision in November 2025, stopped Melissa Martinez by knockout in July 2025 and knocked out Viktoriia Dudakova in January 2025. Her only UFC loss came in her promotional debut, a unanimous decision against Jasmine Jasudavicius in July 2024. Kline has answered that setback with steady progress, mixing pressure striking and finishing instinct across four appearances. The Ricci fight raises her level of competition against a durable, experienced grappler. A fourth straight win would push Kline toward the edge of the strawweight rankings in Oklahoma City.
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Main Card
Featherweight · 3 rds
Pick
Alberto Montes
TOSS-UP
Tommy Mcmillen -110 / Alberto Montes -110 [TBD]
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
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Tommy Mcmillen
UFC debut, 0-0
Tommy McMillen makes his UFC debut against Alberto Montes in Oklahoma City. The featherweight arrives without a prior Octagon appearance, so his promotional record starts at 0-0. Debuts carry their own pressure, and McMillen draws an opponent who already owns a UFC win. Little of his professional resume has played out under the promotion's lights, which makes this a genuine unknown for the wider audience. A strong showing would hand him an immediate foothold on the roster. McMillen will look to impose his pace early and prove the call-up was warranted. He fights on the preliminary card, one of several newcomers taking a first walk to the Octagon on this event, and the experience gap runs against him on the night.
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Alberto Montes
1-0 UFC, 1 fight
Alberto Montes puts a 1-0 UFC record on the line against debuting Tommy McMillen. The featherweight opened his promotional account with a submission win over Ricky Turcios in March, a finish that flagged him as a prospect worth tracking. One fight into his UFC run, Montes now draws a newcomer in McMillen, a matchup that lets him build on early momentum. His single Octagon appearance showed a finisher's instinct on the mat. A second win would move him to 2-0 and start to establish him in a deep featherweight division. Montes fights on the preliminary card in Oklahoma City, holding the experience edge this early in both men's promotional careers.
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Main Card
Featherweight · 3 rds
Pick
Austin Bashi
TOSS-UP
Austin Bashi -110 / Jose Miguel Delgado -110 [TBD]
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
FightIQ Newsroom · Fighter Bios
Austin Bashi
1-1 UFC, 2 fights
Austin Bashi meets debuting Jose Miguel Delgado on a 1-1 UFC record. The featherweight bounced back from a rough start with a submission win over John Yannis in August 2025, his first Octagon victory. That result followed a unanimous-decision loss to Christian Rodriguez in January 2025 on his promotional debut. Bashi arrives at an even 1-1 with a chance to build his first UFC winning streak against a newcomer. A well-rounded prospect who can wrestle and finish on the ground, he showed poise in rebounding from the opening loss. Delgado is an unknown quantity, which puts the onus on Bashi to control the terms. He fights on the Oklahoma City preliminary card looking to move above .500 in the promotion.
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Jose Miguel Delgado
UFC debut, 0-0
Jose Miguel Delgado makes his UFC debut against Austin Bashi in Oklahoma City. The featherweight steps into the Octagon for the first time, his promotional record standing at 0-0. He faces an opponent who already owns a UFC finish, which raises the degree of difficulty on debut night. Delgado's professional work to this point has come outside the promotion, leaving him largely untested at this level in the eyes of the wider audience. A win would immediately validate the signing and hand him a strong start. Delgado will aim to settle nerves early and steer the fight into territory that favors him. He is one of several first-timers on the card walking to the Octagon on this event.
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