◆ METHODOLOGY · LOCK MECHANICAL-AGREEMENT CAVEAT
Picks reflect the 4-voice consensus ensemble (V14 + V15.1 + Paperclip + market). Each fight shows pick + confidence tier. LOCK tier fires when our pick aligns with extreme market consensus (-300+ closing favorites); performance is partly real model signal, partly mechanical agreement with the market. 2026 LOCK ledger: 14-2 (n=16, 87.5%) — the flagged tier's canonical season record (source: season_record_2026.json). TOSS-UP picks excluded from accuracy claims. 71.59% consensus accuracy on n=428 / 76.21% UNANIMOUS_3 (n=307), 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing).
Main Event
Welterweight · 3 rds
Pick
Max Holloway
LOW
Conor Mcgregor +251 · Max Holloway -251
LOWMax Holloway — low-conviction lean at Welterweight.
Co-Main
Lightweight · 3 rds
Pick
Benoit Saint Denis
TOSS-UP
Benoit Saint Denis -130 · Paddy Pimblett +130
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Main Card
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Pick
Cory Sandhagen
TOSS-UP
Cory Sandhagen -135 · Mario Bautista +135
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Main Card
Flyweight · 3 rds
Pick
Loneer Kavanagh
TOSS-UP
Brandon Royval +199 · Loneer Kavanagh -199
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Main Card
Lightweight · 3 rds
Pick
Terrance Mckinney
TOSS-UP
Bobby Green -106 · Terrance Mckinney +106
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Main Card
Light Heavyweight · 3 rds
Pick
Robert Whittaker
TOSS-UP
Nikita Krylov +120 · Robert Whittaker -120
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim
Heavyweight · 3 rds
Pick
Gable Steveson
LOW
Gable Steveson -905 · Elisha Ellison +905
LOWGable Steveson — low-conviction lean at Heavyweight.
Prelim
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Pick
Adrian Yanez
TOSS-UP
Cody Garbrandt +365 · Adrian Yanez -365
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim
Featherweight · 3 rds
Pick
Luke Riley
LOW
Luke Riley -228 · Kai Kamaka +228
LOWLuke Riley — low-conviction lean at Featherweight.
Prelim
Women's Flyweight · 3 rds
Pick
Tracy Cortez
TOSS-UP
Tracy Cortez +111 · Wang Cong -111
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim
Middleweight · 3 rds
Pick
Damian Pinas
LOW
Damian Pinas -228 · Cesar Almeida +228
LOWDamian Pinas — low-conviction lean at Middleweight.
Prelim
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Pick
Farid Basharat
LOW
Farid Basharat -545 · John Garza +545
LOWFarid Basharat — low-conviction lean at Bantamweight.
Prelim
Middleweight · 3 rds
Pick
Zachary Reese
TOSS-UP
Ryan Gandra -125 · Zachary Reese +125
TOSS-UPModel effectively a coin flip; the side shown is a marginal lean, not a call.
Prelim
Flyweight · 3 rds
Pick
Alessandro Costa
LOW
Alessandro Costa -208 · Cody Durden +208
LOWAlessandro Costa — low-conviction lean at Flyweight.