A four-model consensus — V14 + V15 + Paperclip + market odds, stacked via logistic regression — trained on 8,500+ fights. 82.67% live on flagged picks (62-13 across 21 cards in 2026); 84.9% on high-confidence holdout (n=52); 75.6% across 2026 cards (n=90). Every number n-cited. No guesswork.
FightIQ is a data-analytics tool that publishes prediction probabilities and a verifiable track record. It is not betting advice and we do not facilitate gambling. Read the model, treat the numbers as one input into your own judgement.
Original UFC writing — main-event breakdowns, model-vs-market reads, recaps, autopsies. Updated daily. Browse all 95 →
The daily digest: what the model is reading, where the market's moving, what's actually news vs noise. New standing daily format.
The middleweight champion's first defence after the title-shot pivot. Our model + the market are not in lockstep.
The callout the model didn't price; reading what the matchmaking signal might be saying.
The heavyweight thread that won't quit. Verhoeven, return-to-MMA timing, and the Aspinall ladder.
The card went 9/12 (75%); the LOCK pick lost. We own the miss, and explain what HIGH should have meant.
When all four model voices agree and the market agrees and the result still goes the other way — what does it tell us?
2025-26 holdout · real-market ROI basis (BFO closing). Every claim n-cited, strata stated. See full methodology →
Past performance does not guarantee future results. All accuracy + ROI numbers are 2025-2026 holdout, real-market basis (BFO closing). TOSS-UP picks excluded. +8.09% consensus ROI on n=428, +15.99% bankroll growth / +7.40% turnover ROI on flagged picks (n=216, 1u flat sizing).
Most prediction sites give you gut feelings dressed up as analysis. We give you a machine that learns from every fight ever thrown.
8,500+ UFC fights spanning 12+ years. Striking, grappling, physical attributes, Elo ratings, historical odds — all cleaned and structured.
We don't just look at records. Proprietary features capture style matchups, momentum, aging curves, and how fighters perform under pressure.
Four algorithms compete and collaborate. A dual architecture blends market-aware and market-blind predictions to avoid overfitting.
We scan betting markets in real time. When our model disagrees with the market, we flag it. That's where the money is.
Each algorithm sees the fight differently. When they agree, we're confident. When they don't, we tell you.
Statistical foundation — finds the signal in the noise
Pattern recognition — learns complex matchup dynamics
Speed optimised — processes every angle at scale
Robustness engine — guards against overfitting
UFC Freedom 250 tonight · Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje at the White House · Pereira vs Gane co-main · 7 fights · PPV.
Every prediction comes with a confidence tier. The edge lives in LOCK and HIGH — that's where you should focus.
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