The flyweight main event pairs momentum with mythology. Manel Kape has turned into one of the division's most dangerous men, stringing together knockouts of Bruno Silva and Asu Almabayev before the statement that changed his standing — a first-round knockout of Brandon Royval in December. He's knocking out ranked contenders, and he arrives as the more proven commodity here.

Across from him is the best comeback narrative in the sport. Kyoji Horiguchi fought in the UFC, left, and didn't return for over nine years — then came back in late 2025 and went 2-0 immediately, submitting Tagir Ulanbekov and outpointing Amir Albazi. He left as a prospect and returned as a finished article, his speed apparently intact across the gap.

Our model rates it a near coin-flip, leaning Kape only slightly. The stylistic question is clean: Kape's finishing power and recent form against Horiguchi's championship-level experience and the cage speed that's somehow survived a nine-year layoff. A win puts either man squarely in the flyweight title picture.