Ilia Topuria headlines the most unusual card in UFC history — a world title fight on the White House lawn — as the heaviest of favorites. He's 9-0 in the UFC with a highlight reel of finished legends: knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira, plus belts in two divisions. The model rates him its top tier, a -426 favorite. Justin Gaethje, the two-time interim lightweight champion fresh off a decision over Paddy Pimblett, is the near-5-to-1 underdog, and he's leaning into it — calling this his "Miracle On Ice" moment. His own grim math: Holloway stopped him; Topuria stopped Holloway. The variable nobody can model is the venue — outdoor, D.C. heat, the chaos a champion doesn't want. For Gaethje, chaos is the whole pitch.