Marcus McGhee is the more established man here: a knockout of Gaston Bolanos and a decision over Jonathan Martinez before he ran into elite resistance in a decision loss to Petr Yan. That résumé makes him a heavy favorite at -344 over John Yannis, who is two fights into his UFC run (a submission loss to Austin Bashi, then a first-round knockout of Jamie Siraj).

The model picks McGhee but only at low confidence — another spot where the line's certainty outruns the data, largely because Yannis is still an unknown quantity. McGhee should be the better-tested fighter; whether that justifies a -344 number is the open question.