Alessandro Costa has quietly become a problem at flyweight, mixing knockouts (Kevin Borjas, Stewart Nicoll) with the occasional stumble (a TKO loss to Alden Coria). He enters a sizable favorite at -365, and the model agrees emphatically — a high-confidence lean toward Costa.

Matt Schnell is the grizzled counterpoint: a 16-fight UFC veteran whose recent results suggest the miles are showing. He's been submitted twice in his last three (Cody Durden, then Joseph Morales in the first round), with a lone decision win over Jimmy Flick between. Schnell's experience and scrambling are real, but durability is the question, and Costa is the kind of finisher who asks it loudly.