Ketlen Souza is the favorite (Carnelossi is a +308 underdog), and the model backs her at high confidence. Souza has been in tight, competitive fights — split decisions against Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez — before a unanimous-decision win over Bruna Brasil. Ariane Carnelossi is the rugged veteran with a scrappy résumé, but her recent run has been hard, including a submission loss to Talita Alencar.

The profile favors Souza's activity and craft over three rounds, though Carnelossi's grit has made better-positioned opponents work. It's a grinder — the kind Souza has shown she can edge.