A slight favorite at -153, Joanderson Brito brings featherweight pressure and pop, having steadied himself with a decision over Isaac Thomson after back-to-back losses to William Gomis and Pat Sabatini. Jordan Leavitt is the stylistic foil — a grappler riding momentum, with a first-round submission of Kurt Holobaugh and a decision over Yadier del Valle.

The model rates it close to a toss-up (a faint lean to Brito), and the matchup explains why: it's a classic striker-vs-grappler puzzle where the winner is whoever dictates where the fight happens — Brito keeping it standing, or Leavitt dragging it to the mat. (Note: the early card listing showed a different opponent for Leavitt; the confirmed bout is against Brito.)