The model's one clean LOCK on the night landed: Alexia Thainara at an 81% win probability, and she won. The headliner is where it slipped. The model picked Marcin Tybura, Tyrell Fortune took the decision after three rounds, and the card closed at a flat 7-for-12.\n\nTyrell Fortune took the main event from Marcin Tybura by decision after three rounds at UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Fortune on March 28, 2026. The heavyweight headliner went the full distance, with Fortune getting the nod.\n\nThe rest of the card moved faster. Five fights ended inside the opening round, with first-round knockouts from Lance Gibson Jr., Casey O'Neill, Lerryan Douglas and Alexa Grasso, plus a first-round submission from Michael Chiesa. Grasso's first-round knockout stands out among the names on the slate, and the cluster of early finishes set the tone for a night where most fights did not need the judges.\n\n### The model autopsy\n\nThis was a middling card for the model. It went 7-for-12 on the night, a 58% hit rate, which sits below where we want to be and below our season line.\n\nThe flagged picks, the ones we tag LOCK or HIGH because the model is most confident, went 2-for-4. That is a coin-flip result on the picks that are supposed to carry the night, and it is the part of the grade we are least happy with. The one clean LOCK on the card landed: the model gave Alexia Thainara an 81% win probability and she won, so the highest-conviction call held up. The other flagged picks did not all follow.\n\nThe headliner is the miss we have to own outright. The model picked Marcin Tybura and Tybura lost. To be precise about what the model actually believed, this was not a confident call. It was tagged TOSS-UP at a 53% win probability for Tybura, which is the model telling you it had almost no read on the fight. A 53% pick that loses is a coin flip landing on the wrong side. We still log it as a wrong main-event pick, because it was one, but the confidence tag matters: the model never claimed to know this fight, and the grade reflects that it did not.\n\nNo upsets were flagged on this card in our records, so there is no called-upset win to point to here. The honest read is that the model did its best work on the one fight it was sure about and treated the headliner as the near-coin-flip it turned out to be.\n\n### One honest takeaway\n\nA 58% card with a 2-of-4 flagged split is below our standard, and nights like this are exactly why we publish the full grade instead of cherry-picking the good cards. Across our verified 2026 live record, the model is hitting 67.9% on all picks and 81.4% on its LOCK and HIGH flagged picks over a sample of 64. This card came in under both of those marks. That is the point of grading every event: the season line is built from cards that beat it and cards like this one that do not, and the LOCK on Thainara holding while the TOSS-UP headliner missed tracks how the model behaves. It scores best when it is most confident, and it tells you when it is guessing. On March 28, it was guessing on the main event, and the guess was wrong.