A dual-ensemble ML model trained on 8,500+ fights. Live-trial accuracy 59.3% on n=59 across 5 cards. LOCK tier 11-1 in 2026 (mostly mechanical agreement with extreme market favorites; one real LOCK, one loss — Chimaev at 80% to all three models lost to Strickland on UFC 328 main. See methodology). No guesswork, no gut feelings — just data.
Live 2026 results + 7-year walk-forward backtest (2020–2026). Not cherry-picked. Not overfit. Zero data leakage.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Live-trial cumulative is the honest 2026 number; the 75.6% headline blended walk-forward backtest with live trial — split out above.
Most prediction sites give you gut feelings dressed up as analysis. We give you a machine that learns from every fight ever thrown.
8,500+ UFC fights spanning 12+ years. Striking, grappling, physical attributes, Elo ratings, historical odds — all cleaned and structured.
We don't just look at records. Proprietary features capture style matchups, momentum, aging curves, and how fighters perform under pressure.
Four algorithms compete and collaborate. A dual architecture blends market-aware and market-blind predictions to avoid overfitting.
We scan betting markets in real time. When our model disagrees with the market, we flag it. That's where the money is.
Each algorithm sees the fight differently. When they agree, we're confident. When they don't, we tell you.
Statistical foundation — finds the signal in the noise
Pattern recognition — learns complex matchup dynamics
Speed optimised — processes every angle at scale
Robustness engine — guards against overfitting
UFC FN May 16 tonight · Allen vs Costa headline · 10 fights · Consensus Pick v2 pending publish. Below: the headline picks where model + market disagree most.
Every prediction comes with a confidence tier. The edge lives in LOCK and HIGH — that's where you should focus.
We scan Polymarket and sportsbook lines in real time and compare them against our model probabilities. When the market is wrong, we flag it.
If our model says a fighter wins 76% of the time but the market prices them at 62%, that's a +14% edge. We surface these opportunities so you can act on them.
Full pre-fight analysis, FightIQ model predictions, and post-fight results for every UFC event in 2026.
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